What ‘Liberation Day’ could mean for US equities, growth

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The countdown to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” is on, and the White House remains tight-lipped about what will be in his tariff announcement tomorrow.

Bulls are optimistic Trump will put an end to the back-and-forth trade policies that have unnerved markets since he took office. The logic goes: No matter what the levies actually are, at least the policies will be set in stone.

I’m less certain tomorrow will bring, well, certainty. Trump yesterday hinted that he would be open to negotiations with foreign nations, so the pattern — in which harsh and sweeping policies are announced, then either quickly walked back or delayed — may continue after all.

Most of the conversation around tariffs has been about how higher levies will impact consumer prices (i.e. inflation and Fed policy). But the bigger impact of tariffs is arguably that doing business with the US is going to get more expensive, which in turn is bad for growth.

Trump and his team maintain that short-term pain is to be expected, and they say it’s a small price to pay for bringing manufacturing back to the US.

Tomorrow’s announcement will likely focus on global reciprocal tariffs, which we’ll be watching. But personally, I’m most interested in seeing if the administration targets copper imports.

The US currently produces about half the amount of copper it consumes annually, meaning roughly 1 million metric tons are imported. Copper is virtually in everything: wiring, plumbing, motors, medical devices, personal electronics — you get the picture.

“Dr. Copper” may be a dated economic indicator, but expect to see the metal dominating headlines should tariffs come down the line.

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